Looking at Ontario politics post-June 12
“You voted for jobs, you voted for growth. Thank you for voting to build Ontario up,” said Kathleen Wynne in her victory speech at the Sheraton Centre, downtown Toronto, on June 12.
The results of the election, pushed forward by Andrea Horwath’s decision to reject the proposed Liberal budget, were far from expected. While the first four weeks of campaigning saw polls predicting a close race between Wynne’s Liberals and Tim Hudak’s Progressive-Conservatives, the final week saw predictions all over the map, from a three-way, neck-in-neck race between the Liberals, PCs, and Horwath’s NDP to a blow-out win for Hudak.
There was almost no inclination, however, that the Liberals would win a majority, especially following several scandals at the hands of former Premier Dalton McGuinty – more specifically, following the billion-dollar gas plant scandal.
But win a majority they did, and with their upset comes question as to the future of the Ontario political landscape.
The Liberals picked up seven seats in the Greater Toronto Area, and several more in Kitchener-Waterloo, Barrie, and Northumberland. The party only lost two seats in all, one each in Sudbury and Windsor-West, which both went to the NDP.
Hudak, who won in his riding, announced he would be stepping down from PC party leadership in his concession speech following the release of election results. Roy MacGregor, in an article for theGlobe and Mail, posits that this isn’t exactly shocking.
“Mr. Hudak screwed up with his jobs pitch,” wrote MacGregor. “In a province increasingly concerned about school standards and basic math, he showed himself incapable of reading a simple flash card when he came up with that one-million jobs promise.”
Others feel that Hudak made other critical errors on the campaign trail – specifically in his treatment of his fellow candidates.
“Hudak made the choice to personally attack the credibility, likeability, and trust of Kathleen Wynne,” said John Mraz, a former strategist for several previous Liberal campaigns, both federal and provincial, “while every piece of research in the province said that Kathleen Wynne as an individual was more likeable, more trustable, and had more integrity than Tim Hudak was perceived to.”
The Progressive Conservative party failed to pick up any seats in the election, losing a total of ten to the Liberals and NDP. The party’s share of the popular vote dropped more than four per cent from 2011.
While Hudak’s future in Ontario politics is clear, Horwath’s future is less so. Her rejection of the Liberal budget is what triggered election, which will likely run the province over $90 million when the bills are in. Prior to the election, several long-time party supporters published a letter of dissent in the Toronto Star, criticizing Horwath’s decision to reject the Liberal budget, which they cited as one of the more progressive budgets in recent Ontario history. Despite these controversies, Horwath was the first of the party leaders to win in her own riding, and NDP candidates across Ontario – both those elected and those defeated – have stood by her decision.
Overall, the NDP vote share rose a little over one per cent from the 2011 election. Horwath said the election result wasn’t what her party had been hoping for, but she still holds no regrets about triggering the election.
“People were able to make a decision, and that’s all along what I had said was the important thing,” said Horwath.
CBC News, however, in their recent article, “Ontario election: 5 key questions after Liberals win majority,” expressed less certainty towards Horwath’s political stability.
“In the next few weeks, she’ll be left to answer why this was done when the result was a Liberal majority and an NDP seat count that stays static at 21,” reads the article. “Horwath [woke] up Friday as the leader of a party … whose views the Liberals no longer have to listen to.”
Wynne has said that her party will not waste time, and she plans to follow through on her election promises to get provincial parliament back up and running within 20 days. Now commanding 58 seats in parliament, the Liberals should also waste no time in getting their pre-election budget passed.
Voter turnout this election topped 52 per cent – four per cent higher than the 2011 election, which saw the lowest voter turnout in Ontario history. While turnout is improving, levels still remain below that of the 2007 election, and well below those of the 1990s.