Tensions rise in anticipation of upcoming independence vote
The vote for Scottish independence, highly anticipated for Thursday, Sept. 18, has eyebrows raised across the UK, as polls suggest a very close call and the possibility of Scotland’s independence suddenly looks very real.
As of Sept. 12, polls showed the votes at 51 per cent for the “No” campaign and 49 per cent for the “Yes.”
Reactions and responses to this possible break-up of a 300-year union between Scotland and England are mixed – and media released on the topic is equally varied, as biases continue to permeate the coverage.
Despite interesting points of contention, especially between politicians Alex Salmond, the First Minister of Scotland, and British Labour Party politicians Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown, there remains confusion over what the practical change for Scotland under independence.
One greatly debated topic is that of currency and whether Scotland will be allowed continued use of the pound. The short answer is yes; however, what Salmond wants is a formal currency union. This would require the UK government to give the green light for Scotland to retain its use of UK currency, and the decision would have to come from all the main parties.
Without the formal currency union, Scotland would not have access to a central bank and would lack control over interest and exchange rates, as well as over funds in crises.
In a situation without a formal currency union, Scotland has three potential courses of actions: keep the pound (without the UK government’s agreement), create their own currency, or adopt the Euro.
Another point of debate is the strength of the North Sea oil and gas and its influence on Scotland’s revenue. The profits that could come from these reserves would indeed be an important, and significant, amount of income for Scotland. However, how these resources are be split would have to be negotiated with the UK government. Oil prices are also volatile. The fluctuation of both previous and future revenues of oil and gas show massive differences between the highest forecast and the lowest forecast. Considering the expenditures that Scotland makes, where these prices end up impacts their economy. Experts have also argued that the reserves may begin to run out in the next 25 to 35 years.
This uncertainty has already begun in the stock market and in banks. Britain’s currency dropped significantly just before the release of a poll showing the “Yes” campaign in the lead for the first time. The market dropped just 10 days before the Scottish vote for independence, and the pound lost almost one and half cents against the US dollar.
Traveling and safety in Scotland could also change should the vote go to independence. If the Scottish government remained in the Common Travel Area (CTA), then there would be free travel across internal borders. However, Scotland may need to join the Schengen area as a condition of European Union (EU) membership. This is because, with independency, they would be require to join the EU autonomously. It would not be possible for Scotland to remain in the CTA and a part of the Schengen area at the same time, so the border and legislation of travel balances on a lot of “ifs.”
Even after the referendum, if Scotland gains independence, it will not be immediate. Rather, Scotland will enter negotiations with Britain, begin complex talks with EU, and then begin a general election campaign sometime after May 2015. Salmond has declared May 23, 2015 at midnight as his target date to declare Scotland independent — if the upcoming vote falls that way. It seems that the tensions and debate will continue to build until Sept. 18.
Free Scotland from British rule. Independece!!!