Africa sees dramatic decline in cases, but the fight is not over
Almost a year after the Ebola outbreak was officially declared in West Africa, reported cases finally declining across the continent. If the trend continues, this may be the turning point toward the final stretch of the Ebola epidemic.
In the intense-transmission countries – Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone – the most recent data from the World Health Organization (WHO) shows the number of reported cases to be halved per 10 days in Guinea, 14 days in Liberia, and 19 days in Sierra Leone. Although many cases are likely to go unreported, this marks the first time since the declaration of the outbreak that there has been such a dramatic drop.
In the midst of the outbreak, the governments of the countries with the most reported cases decided upon the closure of public schools after the July-August break, until the outbreak is contained enough to be deemed safe. On Monday, Jan. 19, Guinea was the first to retract the closures, re-opening most of the compromised schools. Attendance remains much lower than before the closure, most likely due to parents’ decisions to keep their children away from any possible Ebola contact.
Liberia will be next, planning to re-open schools by next month if all goes as planned. Sierra Leone, the most affected by Ebola, has not yet established a re-opening date. However, UNICEF continues working with the government and community to prepare for the undetermined official reopening.
Many officials continue to be suspicious about what the decline means for the future of Ebola. In a press conference, WHO Assistant Director Dr. Bruce Aylward explained: “The danger now is that, instead of a steady downward trend, we end up with an oscillating trend where the virus goes up and down.”
Ebola is highly contagious, and without proper treatment, it could just as easily oscillate back into an outbreak. What is important to recognize is that we are now seeing the emergence of a very promising situation in which Ebola containment seems possible.
“I am terrified that the information will be misinterpreted,” Dr. Aylward commented. “It’s like saying your pet tiger is under control.”
As the fluster Ebola treatment begins to settle, efforts can be turned towards prevention and inhibiting main transmutation roots. The WHO has personnel on the ground researching strains in transmission, while also trying to monitor key contacts to catch the virus before it burgeons into a possible outbreak.
“This is the first time that the countries were in a position to stop Ebola,” said Dr. Aylward, who also continued to emphasize the need for further aid effort and public support, if the battle against Ebola is to be won.