October’s federal election and how we got here
With the last issue of The Ontarion for the academic year, it comes time to write my last ON the Hill column. I’ll cover some key takeaways so far from this year, and will suggest what to expect leading up to the 2019 federal election. Of course, the House of Commons doesn’t rise until June, so much more is bound to happen before the end of the year. However, based on how 2019 has gone so far, this year’s federal election is shaping up to be quite momentous.
Since I started writing this column in September 2018, a lot has happened in Parliament. We saw an astonishing number of people either leave government outright or pull their names from this year’s ballot, causing some turbulence in Ottawa. Among these people are the casualties of the SNC-Lavalin scandal, including former minister of justice and attorney general Jody Wilson-Raybould and former chair of the treasury board Jane Philpott, who both left cabinet in the wake of the scandal. Gerald Butts, the Prime Minister’s former principal secretary, and Michael Wernick, the former clerk of the Privy Council, also resigned (although Wernick “retired”) in the aftermath of Wilson-Raybould’s testimony about the scandal at the House Justice Committee.
However, the Liberals are not the only party with bleeding players. The NDP has lost 13 stalwart “old-guard” MPs, who say they will not be running for re-election this fall. Among the faces leaving the mix will be Nathan Cullen, Linda Duncan, Romeo Saganash, Murray Rankin, Thomas Mulcair (the former leader of the NDP), and Kennedy Stewart. All of these people have garnered a great deal of respect during the time they have served Canada, both within their party and outside of it. It will be sad for many to see these folks go, but it will be interesting to see who flies the orange flag in their stead this fall.
To counteract the loss of many familiar faces in the House, there have also been some new ones introduced into the mix. Jagmeet Singh, the leader of the NDP since 2017, was sworn in as an MP for Burnaby South on March 17. He is the first person of colour to lead a Canadian federal party. He is following in the footsteps of Mulcair, who was the leader of the NDP from 2012 to 2017.
There is also the newly minted People’s Party of Canada (PPC) to consider, which is spearheaded by Maxime “Mad Max” Bernier. Bernier served in various ministerial roles during the Harper years and ran against Andrew Scheer in 2017 for the Conservative Party lead. When he lost to Scheer, it wasn’t long before he left the Conservative caucus and started the PPC. The PPC is expected to peel off some of the more far-right votes from the Conservatives, but the extent to which this will happen has yet to be determined.
Some new faces also arrived in 2018 in the other half of Parliament — the Senate. When the Liberals formed government in 2015, 22 out of 105 Senate seats were vacant. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau set about filling those seats as quickly as possible, resulting in 43 new appointments since the fall of 2015. Why were so many Senate seats vacant when Trudeau took office, you might ask? Well, Senators are obliged to vacate their positions when they turn 75, and it is up to the prime minister of the day to recommend to the governor general new appointments to the Senate. Stephen Harper purposefully did not nominate new Senators during the latter part of his term and even declared a moratorium on Senate appointments in 2015, just a few months before the federal election. In an announcement made regarding this moratorium, Harper said that his refusing to appoint more Senators would save taxpayers money and would hopefully jumpstart a Senate reform process. In contrast, as soon as Trudeau took office, he immediately set about appointing independent or non-affiliated Senators, and finally filled all of the vacancies in December 2018.
Aside from the fluctuation of incoming and outgoing people, the pre-election airwaves seem to be heating up with increasingly antagonistic comments and ads. The opposition is not letting the SNC-Lavalin scandal go anytime soon, and they recently pulled an amusing stunt in the House that left MPs stuck voting for more than 30 hours straight. The filibuster was meant to protest Trudeau’s refusal to extend Wilson-Raybould’s waiver of privilege that previously allowed her to testify about the affair before the House Justice Committee.
As if to further capitalize on the Liberals’ waning polling numbers following the scandal, Rachel Notley, Premier of Alberta, announced on March 19 that Alberta’s provincial election will be held in less than a month on April 16. The Alberta NDP also recently launched an attack ad against Jason Kenney, the Conservative candidate, casting him as an anti-gay crusader. This display highlights a combative tack that will likely only escalate as we stumble into election season.
Finally, it will be interesting to see if the recent “Green blush” seen in certain parts of the country will result in more Green seats in the House. 2018 saw the election of Mike Schreiner, the first Green MPP in Ontario, and the provincial Greens are currently polling at 38 per cent in Prince Edward Island, according to a Corporate Research Associates poll released in early March. What with the emergence of new colours on the scene, new leaders, and new scandals, 2018 was a raucous year for Canadian federal politics and 2019 is shaping up to be even more so.
Writer’s note and disclaimer: My name is Ella; I’m a U of G alumna, and I intern for Elizabeth May — MP for Saanich-Gulf Islands and the leader of the Green Party of Canada (GPC). As Ms. May’s intern, I attend parliamentary committees, correspond with constituents, attend legislative affairs, and work closely with her legislative assistants. The catch is, I have no prior experience with or knowledge of politics. This column details my experiences learning about the political culture and proceedings on Parliament Hill. My views are my own, and do not represent those of the GPC or of The Honourable Elizabeth May, MP.