On Oct. 29, 2015, Chinese officials revealed plans to dissolve China’s one-child policy in favour of the implementation of a two-child policy. Government officials stated that the change of policy will take effect in March 2016. Until then, party representatives have informed the public to adhere to the previous policy until the change is official.
The decision to allow all couples to raise two children was made in the face of a rapidly aging population and rapidly shrinking workforce. By 2020, a significant chunk of China’s population—23 per cent—will be over the age of 65, presenting a massive challenge to China’s medical and social insurance systems. Furthermore, the strain to provide and care for elderly relatives is likely to become too much for the younger generations to bear. Since pension programs are only available to those who have worked in either government sectors or for large corporations, offspring are largely responsible for caring for elderly relatives. The problem has been dubbed the “4:2:1” phenomenon, meaning that one couple needs to not only provide food, housing, and educational programs for a child, but also for two sets of elderly parents.
At the time of the policy’s implementation, in the 1970s, China’s population was rapidly approaching one billion. Forecasts estimated that the population would become far too strenuous for the economy to support. Concerned by the possible ruinous effects on ambitious plans for economic growth, the policy was introduced in 1979 by former Chinese Leader Deng Xiaoping. Since the implementation of the policy, government officials claim that the births of some 400 million children have been prevented. The policy was enforced by providing financial and employment incentives to those who complied, by making contraceptives widely available, and by fining those who violated the law. Coercive means, like forced abortions and mass sterilizations, were also enforced to control population growth.
Wealthy families were able to circumnavigate restrictions by paying fines and offering bribes. China’s traditional preference for male offspring led to a large number of girls being abandoned or left in orphanages, as well as sex-selective abortions and even female infanticide. As a result of the male favouring by the general population, there is now an imbalance between men and women, generating a greater market for the human trafficking of women into China.
However, due to the high cost of living and the shouldering of immense burdens by China’s couples, it is possible that the implementation of the two-child policy will have little effect. If the low birth rate is driven by economic pressures rather than the family planning policies, then relaxing the policy is unlikely to solve the problem. In the past few years, the Government of China has allowed around 10 million couples who were both only children to apply to have a second child. However, fewer than half a million applied.
Since the announcement of the change in policy, people across all generations have taken to social media to discuss the effects that the one-child policy has had since its implementation. It remains to be seen what effects that changing the policy will have on China’s population.
Human rights groups across the globe have long held the policy as a gross and indecent abuse of human rights.