The University of Guelph’s Food Institute released their annual Food Price Report early in December 2015, forecasting changes in prices across food categories in Canada for the coming year. The researchers and authors of the report anticipate food inflation to exceed the general inflation rate, and predict that the average Canadian household will spend up to $345 more on food in 2016. This will reflect an anticipated inflation of two to four per cent in overall food expenditures.
While this amount may seem daunting at first, there are a few things to remember. First of all, most students spend under the household average because our household often consists of one individual, whereas many other Canadian households consist of an average of 2.6 people, according to the 2011 census. If an increase of $345 reflects the maximum anticipated increase of four per cent, that means that over the span of a year, the total cost of groceries is $8625. Per month, this works out to about $718. If we divide this in half, to account for one person instead of 2.6, this estimates that the average Canadian individual will spend $359 on food per month after the anticipated increase. If we were to calculate our current monthly grocery spending (on average), I would estimate that it’s probably within the realm of normal, possibly leaning towards the high end due to appetite variations and other variables.
According to the Food Price Report 2016, food prices in stores have already risen by 4.1 per cent in the past year. The authors of the report estimate that this increase would have caused the average Canadian family to pay about $325 more for food in 2015. The report acknowledges the poor performance of the Canadian dollar this year as one contributing factor for consideration. The other two significant factors were El Niño’s impact on the climate and important consumer trends, including supply chain transparency and animal welfare, gut health, and vegetable proteins.
The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization declared 2016 the International Year of the Pulses. The Food Report 2016 cites this as a motivating factor for protein alternatives to meat, based on the results of a study conducted by the Food Institute earlier in 2015 on higher prices of beef and the impact on consumers. Pulses, which are also known as grain legumes, consist of a group of 12 seeds, including lentils, chickpeas, and dry beans. They are one of the most sustainable crops to grow, which makes them very popular in developing countries as they are also high in protein, fibre, and vitamins, according to the Global Pulse Confederation’s website.
Eighty-one per cent of fruits and vegetables sold in Canada are imported, making these categories extremely vulnerable to price fluctuation, according to the report. Price inflation for meat was five per cent in 2015, which was actually lower than the previous year. A 2.4 per cent increase in fish and seafood prices was slightly lower than anticipated, but a rise of 2.9 per cent in prices of grain products was higher than forecasted in last year’s Food Price Report.
Maclean’s reviewed this report and published an article on Dec. 29, 2015, on the “sticker shock” of food inflation. They cited a report from Provision Coalition that estimated that the average household wastes $1500 worth of food in a year, based on data from Statistics Canada and other research.
There are several ways for students, as individual consumers, to be both health and budget-conscious when shopping for groceries. Specifically in Guelph, some grocery stores such as Zehr’s offer student discounts of 10 per cent on particular days. Additionally, most grocery stores will price-match, so it’s worth finding flyers and looking for deals to try and keep your costs down. Buying produce that is in season will also be cheaper than imported fruits and vegetables, already noted as one of the most expensive areas.
According to the report, the Food Institute connects food research and expertise across all fields of study with Canadian and global partners to support sustainability, economic growth, and security in the food supply chain.